The Gloomy Guess, Measured

The Gloomy Guess, Measured

Back in the 2010s, a group of researchers ran a simple test. They paired up strangers and gave them questions to talk about.

Some pairs got shallow questions. What's the best TV show you've watched lately?

Other pairs got deep ones. When did you last cry in front of someone? For what in your life do you feel most grateful?

Before the conversations, everyone had to predict how it would go. How awkward would it feel? How connected would you feel afterward?

Almost everyone guessed the deep questions would be uncomfortable. A little too much, too soon. Then they had the actual conversations. And the predictions were wrong.

The deep conversations felt less awkward than people expected — and left them feeling more connected and happier than they'd guessed.

There's a word for this kind of wrong guess. Miscalibration — when your expectation is reliably off from what actually happens. And this gap, between how awkward people thought deep talk would be and how awkward it actually was, turned out to be one of the largest ever measured in this kind of research.

Sit with that. We're not slightly off about deep conversation. We're wildly off.

Why we get it so wrong

The reason came down to one belief: we underestimate how much the other person cares.

You reveal something real, and some quiet part of you expects a blank stare. What you actually get, most of the time, is interest. The other person leans in. They share back.

We assume strangers are indifferent to our inner lives. They're not. They're just as starved for a real conversation as we are — and just as convinced that we're the ones who won't want it.

The part that stuck with me

In one version of the study, the researchers simply told people about the miscalibration. Just explained it. And those people went on to choose deeper questions for their next conversation, all on their own. Knowing the gloomy guess was wrong was enough to change what they reached for.

There's older evidence pointing the same way. In one experiment, more than 800 commuters were split into groups. Some were told to strike up a conversation with a stranger on the train. Some were told to sit in silence and enjoy their solitude.

Almost everyone predicted the silent ride would be more pleasant. The opposite was true. The people who talked to a stranger reported a better commute than the people who sat alone. And commuting, for most people, is one of the least pleasant parts of the day.

So the antidote to a miserable train ride was sitting right next to them the whole time. They just assumed it wanted to be left alone.

References

Kardas, M., Kumar, A., & Epley, N. (2022). Overly shallow?: Miscalibrated expectations create a barrier to deeper conversation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 122(3), 367–398. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000281

Epley, N., & Schroeder, J. (2014). Mistakenly seeking solitude. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(5), 1980–1999. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0037323